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Levels of Employment (City Comparisons)

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The purpose of this note is to provide information on recent employment trends in Glasgow, to make comparisons with other areas and to put it in a historical context.

As previously commented, information is available from the Annual Population Survey (APS) on employment levels for Glasgow and other local authorities. As a survey, it is not an overall count, and while it would be preferable to have other data to corroborate these findings, there is at present nothing that can perform that function.

Levels of Employment

The key message is that since March 2020, at the start of the pandemic, employment levels in Glasgow have shown an increase; in fact the current level of residents in employment is one of the highest since the current data set was introduced in 2004.

The table shows that the numeric and percentage increase in Glasgow is higher for the cities shown; and that Aberdeen, Leeds, Scotland and Great Britain have shown a decline in employment.

Table 1: Levels of Employment, Selected Cities

 City

  Year to March 2020   

  Year to September 2021   

  Change   

  %

 Glasgow

           284,800

                 304,100

     19,300

    6.8 

 Aberdeen

           124,500

                 116,900

      -7,600

   -6.1

 Dundee

             67,900

                   68,800

          900

    1.3

 Edinburgh

           267,300

                 272,500

       5,200

    1.9

 Liverpool

           230,100

                 245,100

     15,000

    6.5

 Manchester

           258,500

                 270,100

     11,600

    4.5

 Birmingham

           472,300

                 480,400

       8,100

    1.7

 Leeds

           390,200

                 382,600

      -7,600

   -1.9 

 Scotland

        2,565,100

              2,495,500

    -69,600

   -2.7

 Great Britain  

       30,525,500

            29,961,000

  -564,500  

   -1.8

 

Trends in Employment

The current employment level is radically different from previous record. The predecessor of the APS, the Labour Force Survey, recorded that for 1996 there were 196,000 residents of Glasgow in employment, and that compared with the latest figure of 304,100, this represents an increase of 108,100, and by 55.2%.

Table 2: Trends in Employment, Selected Cities

 City

 Year to Feb 1997   

 Year to September 2021   

 Change

   %

 Glasgow

         196,000

                  304,100

      108,100

   55.2  

 Aberdeen

         110,000

                  116,900

          6,900

     6.3

 Dundee

           60,000

                    68,800

          8,800

   14.7

 Edinburgh

         196,000

                  272,500

        76,500

   39.0

 Liverpool

         151,000

                  245,100

        94,100

   62.3

 Manchester

         136,000

                  270,100

      134,100

   98.6

 Birmingham

         364,000

                  480,400

      116,400

   32.0

 Leeds

         332,000

                  382,600

        50,600

   15.2

 Scotland

      2,195,000

               2,495,500

      300,500

   13.7

 Great Britain   

    24,599,000

             29,961,100

   5,362,100   

   21.8

This represents a considerable change and Glasgow is not alone in seeing a major increase in employment. It should be added that the reasons for such large increases in Glasgow, Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham is probably because even in 1997 these cities were still seeing the effects of the de industrialisation that took place during the 1980s.

Comparisons between Employment and Working-Age Population

There are two main reasons why the numbers in employment in an area might increase, one is that there are more opportunities to move into employment, which may also be linked to the ability of people to take on paid work, itself a reflection of education and training and the other reason is that the number of people of working age might also have increased.

The working-age population total includes people in employment, and also in full-time education, with full-time caring responsibilities, with sickness/disabilities; and those in early retirement.

Table 3: Comparisons between Change in Employment and Change in Working-Age Population

 Change between year to Feb 1997 and year to Sept 2021

 City

             Employment    

            Working Age Pop    

               Difference    

 Glasgow

        108,100

             80,500

          27,600

 Aberdeen

            6,900

             12,900

           -6,000

 Dundee

            8,800

               2,200

            6,600

 Edinburgh

          76,500

             73,400

            3,100

 Liverpool

          94,100

             59,900

          34,200

 Manchester

        134,100

          146,400

        -12,300

 Birmingham    

        116,400

          164,600

        -48,200

 Leeds

          50,600

            66,800

        -16,200

 Scotland

        300,500

          297,500

            3,000

 Great Britain

     5,362,100

       6,021,600

      -659,500

Working-Age Population, age between 16 and 64

It is interesting to see that the increase in employment in Glasgow was substantially greater than the increase in the number of people of working age; the same thing happening in Liverpool.

Universal Credit Claims for People in Employment

It needs to be emphasised that the above trends are not in themselves a measure of the quality of employment. Details of Universal Credit claims for people in work during the period of the pandemic show that in-work poverty is still an issue, and an increasing factor.  In all but one city (Dundee) these claims more than doubled.

The policy consequences may be about progression while in employment, links to training opportunities, and support for lone parents (childcare).

Table 4: Universal Credit Claims for People in Employment

 City

       March 2020     

    December 2021    

     Change    

    %

 Glasgow

            10,378

           24,794

       14,416

  138.9   

 Aberdeen

              2,759

             7,231

         4,472

  162.1

 Dundee

              3,186

             6,045

         2,859

    89.7

 Edinburgh

              4,961

           13,900

         8,939

  180.2

 Liverpool

              9,168

           21,658

       12,490

  136.2

 Manchester

            13,366

           29,400

       16,034

  120.0

 Birmingham

            25,059

           55,010

       29,951

  119.5

 Leeds

            11,818

           29,034

       17,216

  145.7

 Scotland

            82,740

         175,333

       92,593

  111.9

 Great Britain    

       1,048,547

      2,325,967

 1,227,420

  121.8

 

Last modified on 10 April 2024

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